The cardinals were summoned to Rome in record time, just twenty-four hours after the announcement of Pope Francis’ death, which occurred at 7:35 a.m. on Easter Monday. Today, 252 cardinals make up the College of Cardinals, who will be tasked with discussing and then electing Pope Francis’ successor. Shaped by a man known for his progressive choices for the Church, will the sacred college be able to demonstrate its freedom?
There are currently 135 cardinal electors and 117 non-voting cardinals who have exceeded the age limit of 80. Pope Francis contributed more than any other pope to the renewal of the College during his pontificate. Since his election, he has made new appointments every year, with the exception of 2021, in the wake of the pandemic. By way of comparison, Pope John Paul II convened only nine consistories in 25 years, and Benedict XVI five in eight years of pontificate. As a result, the cardinals appointed by his predecessors are now in the minority.
On the eve of the new conclave, the College of Cardinals thus reflects the image of the pontiff who shaped it. Since 2016, the majority of cardinals are now from outside Europe, whereas European cardinals accounted for 51% at the time of Francis’ election. The stated aim was to increase the ‘universality of the Church’: now, the cardinals are mainly from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. However, Europe still has a dominant position, regardless of the number of Catholics on the continent (39.2% of cardinal electors, compared with the 21% of the world’s Catholic population who live in Europe).
The usual configurations that prevailed until Francis’ election have been shattered, making predictions more uncertain than ever.
The vast majority of the cardinals, many of whom were recently elected, hardly know each other. During the period of the papal vacancy, the general congregations, which will meet behind closed doors on an almost daily basis before the conclave in the strict sense begins, will therefore take on crucial importance this time around, as they will allow the cardinals to get to know each other and learn more about their respective positions. Each cardinal will be required to speak at least once, giving them an opportunity to outline their ‘programme’ and communicate what they believe to be the priorities for the Church today.
Commentators are having a field day offering their infographics and trying to determine the dominant trends within the college between conservatives, moderates, and progressives. But, as historian and Vatican expert Christophe Dickès points out, there are many criteria for selection, and they go far beyond the question of the debate between conservatives and progressives: are we moving toward an Italian cardinal to bring the Roman Curia closer to Francis, who has been giving it a hard time? Do we need a young cardinal (synonymous with a very long pontificate) or an older cardinal to make a ‘quick’ transition? Is the time ripe for an African or Asian cardinal? For a cardinal who is a pastor or a cardinal who is a theorist? The categories do not overlap and defy expectations.
For progressives, the stakes are high. They will have to defend tooth and nail all of Pope Francis’ innovations: marginalisation to the point of eradication of the traditional liturgy—i.e., Latin Mass; priority given to social action, with environmentalism and the welcoming of migrants at the forefront; openness to same-sex couples—all trophies displayed by a reformist fringe of the Catholic Church who believe that progress must be pursued at all costs, with no turning back. Some cardinals are keeping a watchful eye, such as Cardinal Arthur Roche, architect of the offensive against the traditional liturgy, and Cardinal Fernandez, prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, who constantly maintains ambiguity about the pope’s position on sexual morality.
On the other side of the spectrum, it is no secret that conservatives are now in the minority within the college. But they nevertheless intend to make their voices heard. The Christian newspaper La Croix revealed in February that a meeting of conservative cardinals had been organised in Prague at the instigation of the Austin Institute for Family and Culture, in order to influence the ongoing debates in the Vatican on the issue of gender—which the daily newspaper was careful not to interpret as ‘preparation for the conclave.’ However, it was a good opportunity for those who do not identify with the new course taken by Pope Francis to count themselves and encourage each other. For the game is far from over. The fact that the overwhelming majority of cardinals were chosen by Francis does not mean that they will blindly follow his line when it comes to voting. The Argentine pope’s orientations have disconcerted many, whether it be his style of government, his choices in matters of sexual morality, or his tendency to favour social and political action at the expense of the mystic and the sacred.
The case of the African cardinals is emblematic in this regard. Contrary to the fantasies of left-wing journalists who dream of a revolutionary black pope who will shake up the status quo, they do not present a united front of progressive ‘Third World’ cardinals, nor are they limited to a conservative view of Catholic morality. Cardinal Sarah, originally from Guinea, is well-known to conservative Catholics for his reverence for Pope Benedict XVI and his attachment to traditional liturgy. Cardinal Turkson, from Ghana, has a more complex profile: he shares the late pope’s concerns for the environment and the protection of children, which has sometimes earned him the nickname ‘green cardinal,’ while remaining traditional on moral issues—like his African colleagues, he is firmly opposed to same-sex unions.
The game therefore remains wide open: in the secrecy of the Sistine Chapel, what arguments will ultimately prevail when the cardinals confirm their vote? No one knows. So far, the experts’ predictions have been systematically, or almost systematically, proven wrong. The succession of Pope Francis is unlikely to be an exception.
