Thailand at intelligence crossroads
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Thailand at intelligence crossroads

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An artist's impression of a future where men and robots work together side-by-side. (Photo: Sirivisht Toomgum)
An artist's impression of a future where men and robots work together side-by-side. (Photo: Sirivisht Toomgum)

As the United States and China pour vast investments into artificial intelligence, we stand on the brink of a power shift more profound than the atomic age--one where machines, not humans, may soon drive the pace of progress. On the horizon is Artificial General Intelligence or AGI, where machines can perform any intellectual task that humans can do, but also think, reason, adapt and innovate. The signs are clear: we may be approaching the end of the pre-AGI era.

The recent excitement about DeepSeek -- a Chinese-developed AI model that rivals leading US systems at a fraction of the cost -- has revealed two critical shifts. DeepSeek achieved this breakthrough through innovative architecture that dramatically reduces computational costs while maintaining performance. The first shift is simple: AI is getting cheaper to build. The second is more striking: technical limitations are falling away.

These developments carry crucial lessons for a country like Thailand. Positioned between AI superpowers, the stakes could not be higher. Thailand's recent push towards digital transformation and the Thailand 4.0 initiative may soon be overtaken by a far more fundamental shift.

In my career of over four decades as a Professor and President of the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), I have witnessed the emergence and evolution of numerous developments -- from using slide rules to calculators, from mainframe computers to personal laptops, and from basic automation to sophisticated AI systems. But none has been as rapid as what we are seeing today.

For nations like Thailand -- long reliant on human capital and expertise to drive development, with key industries from automotive assembly to tourism services, and among the world's fastest-ageing societies -- there is an urgent need to move beyond viewing AI as just another trend and recognise it as a transformative force reshaping the world order. To understand the implications for emerging economies, we must examine key elements addressing AI accessibility, urgency, societal implications, and global stakes. These factors offer crucial lessons -- not just for Thailand, but for all countries navigating the space between AI superpowers.

The landscape of AI is being reshaped by plummeting costs and vanishing technical barriers, and this is double-edged. As innovation accelerates, so does the risk of misuse. Both well-intentioned and malicious actors can now access advanced AI technologies with relative ease, raising urgent questions about regulation and security.

This implies that humanity stands at a significant turning point. Human society, which once evolved gradually from generation to generation, has now leapt forward at an extraordinary pace. Tasks that previously required human labour and intellect are increasingly being taken over by AI. Further, generative AI, which once assisted with narrow, routine tasks, has now advanced to a level comparable to PhD-level scholars. The next leap in AI development is expected to surpass human understanding and control, marking a huge shift in technological capability.

The next developments are breathtakingly immediate. Some experts warn that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) -- with intelligence equal to or surpassing that of humans -- could emerge as early as 2030. This could revolutionise all sectors of society, generating abundant resources while also presenting unique challenges, such as widespread unemployment and the potential need for Universal Basic Income (UBI).

In the near future, AGI may eventually surpass human experts across all fields, playing a pivotal role in addressing global challenges, such as climate change. This could potentially shift decision-making power from humans to AGI systems, concentrating control within autonomous systems and altering the dynamics of governance and power.

This gives rise to major concerns. The greatest is that AGI may evolve beyond human control, creating a self-learning loop that accelerates its own intelligence at a fast rate -- while potentially driving prosperity, it poses significant risks if AGI's objectives diverge from human values.

At the same time, AGI will reshape the landscapes of labour, education, and scientific research. Traditional professional roles that once formed the backbone of society may gradually diminish or disappear, while entirely new human roles -- previously unimaginable -- will emerge. These changes will compel humanity to redefine its social contract within an economy that no longer depends on human labour as its primary driver.

The final two considerations reveal the global stakes and our shared common path ahead. The vast investments from businesses and governments -- particularly in the United States and China -- will accelerate the transition from AGI to Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI). This concentration of capital raises urgent questions about who will control these powerful technologies and how both their benefits and risks will be distributed worldwide, including in countries like Thailand.

Given these profound implications, Thailand cannot afford to be a passive observer. Thailand's response must be both swift and strategic. Four priorities demand immediate attention: building AI literacy across all sectors of society, transforming our education system to prepare citizens for an AI-integrated economy, strengthening collaborative partnerships regionally and globally, and establishing robust governance frameworks that balance innovation with public safety and ethical considerations.

Finally, we stand at a pivotal moment in history, where AI is poised to redefine human progress, challenging long-established norms, ethics, and power structures. As we venture into uncharted territory, we must prepare to navigate both the abundance that AGI will bring and the existential risks it poses. This intelligence revolution is no longer a distant prospect -- it is already unfolding, and its impact will be felt across every dimension of human life.


Professor Emeritus Worsak Kanok-Nukulchai is Fellow of Royal Society of Thailand and Former President of Asian Institute of Technology (AIT).

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