Though U.S. President Donald Trump helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, officials in Jerusalem are taking no chances. On Friday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare an “enforcement plan” against Iran that includes a clear threat of future kinetic actions.
The plan calls for “maintaining Israel’s air superiority, preventing nuclear advancement and missile production, and responding to Iran for supporting terrorist activities against the State of Israel,” Katz proclaimed on X. “We will act consistently to thwart threats of this kind. I suggest that the toothless snake’s head in Tehran understand and beware: Operation Rising Lion was just the preview of a new Israeli policy.”
“After October 7th,” Katz added, “immunity is over.” That was a reference to the day in 2023 when Hamas launched its surprise attack on Israel that touched off the latest round of bloodshed in the Middle East.
Katz provided no further details about how Israel might act against Iran, which has historically backed Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels of Yemen, as well as Hamas, among other groups still engaged in kinetic actions with Israel.
The Israeli defense minister’s comments come after the recently concluded 12-day war in which much of Iran’s ballistic missile and air defense systems were destroyed, its nuclear weapons program reportedly badly damaged, and its top nuclear scientists and military leaders assassinated. Other military capabilities and critical command and control infrastructure were also decimated. All these actions required the Israeli Air Force gaining air superiority, its commander stated.
Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar’s comments were made when Operation Rising Lion was launched on June 13 and released today.
“If you ask me: ‘Commander, what is the decisive element of victory? Is it Natanz? Is it 80 surface-to-surface missile launchers?’ It is aircraft over Tehran whenever we choose — that’s a significant decisive component,” Bar postulated. “Therefore, we need to get there, and we need to create the impact that will make them feel exposed — finished.”
“And if you ask me what will bring us to that point, it’s only one thing: superiority, superiority, and once again — superiority,” Bar continued. “This is a prolonged battle and campaign of superiority. From sortie to sortie, there’s a powerful logic here. You take everything possible at the start — from detection, the main control posts, to the scattered air defenses jumping left and right and extending my range by a few kilometers every morning with some launch the Iranians carry out.”

The lasting importance of Israel owning the skies over Iran was something we predicted when the Israeli attack commenced.
“Israel will be in a position to have minimally contested access to Iran’s airspace long after this is over,” TWZ editor-in-chief Tyler Rogoway pointed out on June 13. “Reconstituting any of these programs under such conditions will be a challenge.”
Ten days later, Rogoway added that “Iran’s airspace will remain accessible to Israel for months or even years to come, allowing the IAF to ‘maintenance’ the nuclear threat.”
The possibility that hostilities will resume remains firmly on the table. The ability of the IAF to operate virtually unimpeded over Iran, as it does over Lebanon and Syria, allows Israel to maintain a huge advantage and keep Iran’s nuclear and missile programs under pressure. How Iran will attempt to counter this and rebuild its air defense architecture is yet to be seen, but there is speculation that they could turn to China for assistance in this department.
The Latest
Just under a week after the U.S. Operation Midnight Hammer attack struck three Iranian nuclear facilities, new satellite images obtained by The War Zone show that work is underway at the Fordow underground facility, struck by 12 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs. You can read about the details of that operation here.
Maxar Technologies said it collected new satellite imagery of Fordow today, “that reveals new activity near the tunnel entrances to the underground complex and close to several of the airstrike craters caused by” Midnight Hammer. “On today’s imagery, earth-moving equipment (several excavators and bulldozers) are seen moving dirt near the northern set of holes/craters on the top of the ridgeline. Additionally, new access roads that lead to both sets of airstrike holes are in the early stages of being prepared. Construction/earth moving equipment is also seen immediately north of the entrance to the underground complex, with efforts underway to repair airstrike craters on the main access road to the facility.”




Despite claims by U.S., Israeli and Iranian officials that Iran’s nuclear program has been badly damaged, questions linger about its status.
The U.S. House of Representatives held a closed-door meeting to discuss the program today. Not surprisingly, the assessments provided afterwards broke down along party lines. Republicans claimed Tehran’s nuclear ambitions have been set back by years, while Democrats worried about whether Iran still has enough enriched uranium to make a bomb.
Following that classified briefing, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La) said that Iran’s nuclear capabilities suffered a “major setback” after Operation Midnight Hammer. He told reporters that lawmakers received a “thorough” and “very helpful” closed-door briefing, ABC News reported.
“Democrats left the briefing worried that Iran’s cache of enriched uranium may not have been destroyed,” the network explained.
U.S. Rep. Bill Foster (D-IL), the only PhD nuclear physicist serving in Congress, told reporters that he worries Iran’s uranium survived, ABC noted.
“I know this technology pretty well. I was very disappointed that we learned very little about the inventory of highly enriched uranium, 60% enriched uranium, and its whereabouts and what that meant for the breakout time to Iran’s first nuclear device,” Foster said. “There is, I think frankly, a very over-optimistic portrayal of what was and was not accomplished by this mission, because we do not have understanding and control of where all of that material is.”
Asked about that uranium stockpile by ABC News, Johnson “downplayed the significance of an initial intelligence assessment from the Pentagon, which showed that Iran’s stockpile was not destroyed.” He was referring to reporting by CNN and several other media outlets that said, based on a preliminary Defense Intelligence Agency assessment, the U.S. attack did not destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
Johnson’s assessment followed previous statements over the past days by Trump, the CIA, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the Israelis, and even Iranian officials that Iran’s nuclear program was badly damaged.
On Friday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded that Iran’s nuclear program was “severely damaged,” but the worst-case scenario for problems caused by radiation was avoided.
“Radiation levels in the Gulf region remain normal following the 12-day conflict that severely damaged several nuclear facilities in Iran,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said today.
Citing regional data reported regularly to the IAEA through the International Radiation Monitoring System (IRMIS), Grossi noted “that this 48-nation network would have detected an important radioactive release from any damaged nuclear power reactor.”
“From a nuclear safety perspective, Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant and the Tehran Research Reactor represented our main concern as any strike affecting those facilities – including their off-site power lines – could have caused a radiological accident with potential consequences in Iran as well as beyond its borders in the case of the Bushehr plant. It did not happen, and the worst nuclear safety scenario was thereby avoided,” Grossi added.
The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), a pro-Israeli Washington think tank, suggested that Iran can no longer quickly develop a nuclear weapon.
“While a full battle damage assessment is needed to determine the status of key sites, U.S. and Israeli strikes decimated all nodes of Iran’s ability to make nuclear fuel and weaponize it into nuclear devices,” explained Andrea Stricker, FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow. “With Iran’s system highly penetrated and in disarray, it may not be possible for the regime to sprint for nuclear weapons using what, if anything, it has left.”
However, on Friday, Iran’s foreign minister said his country’s nuclear ambitions remain viable.
“They thought they would completely destroy our nuclear facilities and leave our hands empty in negotiations, then say, ‘Come to negotiate,’” Abbas Araghchi told Iranian State TV. “This didn’t happen.”
In addition, Araghchi said Iran has voted to end its collaboration with IAEA “until the safety and security of our nuclear activities can be guaranteed.” As we wrote on June 12, IAEA released a damning report that Iran tried to hide its nuclear ambitions. That, and Tehran’s subsequent vow to build new uranium enrichment facilities as a result, gave Israel additional pretext for an attack against its longtime nemesis. A day later, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion.
Evidence is emerging of additional sites Iran can use to enrich uranium. It has another site, near Natanz, that is even deeper and more well-protected than Fordow, according to The Telegraph.
On Thursday, Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of Arms Control Association and publisher of Arms Control Today, said Iran told the IAEA that it had a third location where enrichment could take place and that its highly enriched uranium (HEU) could have been moved there.
As a precondition for signing any future nuclear agreement, “the United States and Israel are demanding that Iran hand over all enriched uranium in its possession that was not destroyed in recent strikes,” the Israeli Israel Hayom news outlet reported on Thursday. “The implicit threat: failure to comply could trigger renewed military action. Both countries fear Tehran may attempt to use its stockpile to develop a dirty bomb.”
During its fight with Israel, Iran launched 631 missiles, of which 500 reached Israel, according to an analysis of IDF figures. Of those missiles that did land on Israeli soil, 243 hit open areas, requiring no air defense response. A total of 36 missiles hit populated areas, while 221 missiles were intercepted. That represented an 86% success rate, the analysis claimed. The War Zone cannot independently verify that.
Yesterday, we told you new details about how 44 U.S. Army soldiers defended Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar against an Iranian missile barrage with Patriot surface-to-air missile interceptions. Today, Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, “clarified that the strike was directed solely at the United States,” the Tehran Times reported.
“I told our Arab neighbors in advance that if the U.S. attacks us, we will have no choice but to respond—and that response may target U.S. military infrastructure based in your countries,” he said, emphasizing that Iran had no intention of targeting any Arab state and that this message was conveyed directly to all six Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC) foreign ministers.
“Our policy remains one of peaceful neighborly relations with all countries in the Persian Gulf, Iraq, and beyond,” he stressed.
As we reported previously, Trump ordered Al Udeid – the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East – and other American bases in the region to “assume a minimum force posture,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine told reporters, including from The War Zone, on Thursday. On Friday, open-source trackers posted flight data on X, indicating a number of aircraft were returning to Al Udeid.
Speaking of Al Udeid, while it is still too soon to know for sure, the Army will almost certainly present awards to the 44 soldiers who defended the base against the Iranian missile barrage, a top Army spokesman told The War Zone.
“The Army takes great pride in recognizing heroism and exemplary achievement,” acting deputy chief of Army public affairs Steve Warren told us. “I have no doubt that local commanders will single out troops in their command who performed in an extraordinary manner.”
That recognition could range from being called out in formation to awards up to and including a Bronze Star with V device for valor.
There “weren’t any reports indicating anything higher would be justified,” Warren explained. “The troops performed exceptionally well under great pressure, but I do not believe any soldier was wounded or suffered from overpressure,” that could have resulted if any Iranian missiles avoided interception.
Awards of a Silver Star, the third-highest military combat decoration that can be awarded to a member of the United States Armed Forces, “is probably less likely,” Warren noted, adding that in addition to individual honors, the soldiers’ formations could receive unit citations.
Trump on Friday lashed out at Iranian assertions that it won the war and exclaimed that he prevented the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“Why would the so-called ‘Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, of the war torn Country of Iran, say so blatantly and foolishly that he won the War with Israel, when he knows his statement is a lie, it is not so,” Trump excoriated on his Truth Social social media site. “As a man of great faith, he is not supposed to lie. His Country was decimated, his three evil Nuclear Sites were OBLITERATED, and I knew EXACTLY where he was sheltered, and would not let Israel, or the U.S. Armed Forces, by far the Greatest and Most Powerful in the World, terminate his life. I SAVED HIM FROM A VERY UGLY AND IGNOMINIOUS DEATH, and he does not have to say, ‘THANK YOU, PRESIDENT TRUMP!’
This is a developing story. We will update it with any pertinent information that arises.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com