ASTANA – The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided on July 11 to keep the base rate at 16.5%. NBK Governor Timur Suleimenov reported that it will most likely remain at this level until the end of 2025, according to the bank’s press service.

Timur Suleimenov at a briefing on July 11. Photo credit: NBK
Annual inflation stood at 11.8% in June, driven mainly by higher service costs (16.1%) amid tariff reforms and rising food prices (10.6%). Monthly inflation eased to 0.8%.
Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 6.0% year-on-year in January-May. The strongest growth was recorded in transport, construction, and trade, with mining and manufacturing also expanding. Domestic demand remains the key driver, outpacing production capacity and creating risks of continued price pressure. Contributing factors include moderate income growth, robust consumer and corporate lending, the popularity of installment plans, active marketing campaigns, and elevated inflation expectations — all reflected in rising retail indicators after a brief slowdown earlier this year.
Suleimenov noted that price pressure persists, but inflation is expected to stay within the forecast range of 10.5-12.5% by year-end. In this context, he stressed the need to maintain tight monetary policy longer, given stable domestic demand, fiscal stimulus, continued consumer lending, and ongoing tariff and tax reforms.
He also highlighted recent legislative changes: on June 30, Kazakhstan signed a law on financial market development and consumer protection. It introduces a 24-hour “cooling-off” period for unsecured loans, strengthens consumer safeguards by requiring in-person loan disbursements, and mandates explicit consent for loans issued to young and elderly borrowers.
Coordination with the government continues on a transition to balanced fiscal policy. Authorities have adjusted the phased tariff reform, announcing no increases in the fourth quarter and a slower rise in individual service costs. As a result, the contribution of utilities to 2025 inflation is now expected at 0.82 percentage points, down from an initial forecast of 1.32 percentage points.